Neighboring congressmen Van Drew, Kim may benefit
By DAVID NAHAN/Sentinel staff
GALLOWAY TOWNSHIP – U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew’s congressional district, already the largest geographically in the state, is going to get larger thanks to the 2020 U.S. Census that saw population drops in the southernmost counties – Cape May, Cumberland and Salem.
Although it’s still speculation at this point, the Republican may get a boost in conservative voters as his and Democratic Rep. Andy Kim’s Third District get new boundaries. Kim could pick up more Democratic voters.
Geographically, the Second Congressional District stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Delaware Bay and Delaware state line, encompassing all of Cape May, Atlantic, Cumberland and Salem counties and parts of Gloucester, Camden, Burlington and Ocean. The southernmost counties lost an average of 5 percent of residents: Cape May dropped 5.4 percent from 97,257 to 92,039; Cumberland dropped 4.5 percent form 156,627 to 149,527; and Salem is down 5.6 percent from 66,072 to 62,385.
His district is down about 14,000 residents.
Overall, New Jersey is not losing a seat based on the Census, unlike neighboring Pennsylvania, but population shifts mean redistricting for its 12 congressional seats and reapportionment for the 40 state legislative districts. At one point New Jersey had 15 congressional districts, but lost one each after the census in 1980, 1990 and 2010.
John Froonjian, executive director of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University, said as the south lost residents over the past decade, the northern part of the state grew.
“We’ve seen much higher growth in the cities, in Newark, Jersey City, the urban areas up north, and in northern Ocean County we’ve seen quite a bit of growth,” he said.
Whether it’s the congressional or state legislative districts, “the southernmost district will need to grow in geographic size to take in more people and in the northern areas they’re going to probably shrink in size.”
Pundits have started speculating what it’s going to mean for various districts, including the Second and Third with Van Drew and Kim, respectively. The talk is whether there would be an attempt to dilute the conservative nature of the Second District or to cede it and bolster the number of Democratic voters in the Third.
Van Drew won his 2020 re-election campaign by a roughly 22,000-vote margin over Democrat Amy Kennedy after switching his party affiliation to Republican at the end of 2019. He was elected in 2018 as a Democrat, an affiliation he held throughout his time in municipal, county and state offices.
Van Drew won the district in 2018 against Republican Seth Grossman by just under a 20,000-vote margin, with far fewer votes cast overall because it was a non-presidential election year.
Kim had an extremely narrow victory in 2018, upsetting the Republican incumbent by only 4,000 votes. When Kim ran for re-election last year, he won by more than 30,000 votes.
Both Kim and Van Drew now seem relatively secure.
Froonjian said he has heard the speculation, which is all it is at this point because the process won’t begin until the end of September or October. Because the tie-breaker on the redistricting has been approved, the redistricting should favor the Democrats statewide.
He said there isn’t much the Republicans can do statewide to make inroads.
“One scenario we might see is the Democrats might concede the Second District to the Republicans, to Jeff Van Drew,” he said. To do that, the Second District could expand into the conservative base of Kim’s district in Ocean County.
He pointed out there are only two districts that border the Second District, the other is the heavily Democrat First held by Donald Norcoss, who won by nearly 100,000 votes in 2018.
“It’s really hard to beat Jeff Van Drew,” Froonjian explained. “He’s a known entity, a known quantity in south Jersey. He’s been running there for 20 years.” The speculation is that the Democratic leadership is “going to let him shore up that district through Ocean County and try to replace those Republican voters with more voters from more Democratic areas for Andy Kim.”
Overall, there really isn’t much of a threat to either Kim or Van Drew and certainly not at all to Norcross in the redistricting, he said.
Northern New Jersey is the area that could see some impactful change.
“The districts around Jersey City and Newark are going to shrink. That really helps the Democrats up there,” Froonjian said. “It spreads the Democratic voters around to more districts. The district where Tom Kean is running is probably going to be a focus of speculation. That’s the other district that might change.” Kean, a Republican, is challenging Tom Malinowski, D-Seventh District.
Legislative districts
Normally, Froonjian said, the state reapportionment comes before the congressional redistricting, but after the constitutional amendment was approved last year, the state is getting more time to reconfigure the 40 legislative districts.
Froonjian said because of population shifts, some of those districts will be redrawn as well, but that probably won’t begin until 2022.
He pointed out that although Atlantic County barely registered a change in overall population, there are likely shifts within the county that will be coming as all places that have districts based on population will need to be redistricted.
The Atlantic County Commission has both at-large and district seats. The Cape May County Commission won’t be affected; all five commissioners are at-large.
Polling on hold
All of this fall’s elections will be based on current districts.
In the First Legislative District incumbent state Sen. Mike Testa and incumbent Assemblymen Antwan McClellan and Erik Simonsen are facing Democrats Yolanda Garcia Balicki (for Senate) and John Capizola Jr. and Christopher Wilson (Assembly).
In the Second District, state Assemblyman Vincent Mazzeo, a Democrat, is facing Republican Vincent Polistina for the open Senate seat vacated by Republican Chris Brown. In the Assembly races, it’s incumbent Democrat John Armato seeking re-election with running mate Caren Fitzpatrick against Republicans Don Guardian, former mayor of Atlantic City, and Claire Swift.
Froonjian said the Stockton Polling Institute, headed by research director Alyssa Maurice, hasn’t begun conducting polls to see where the candidates stand in those races, but will after Labor Day.
“I always felt it was not real useful or cost effective to poll in the summer when people are really not paying attention,” Froonjian said. “I barely pay attention and I’m a political junkie,” he added, laughing. If there were an unlimited budget, they would try to establish a baseline, but there isn’t an unlimited budget.
“It is much more cost effective to poll after Labor Day when people are paying attention,” he said.
Debates
The Hughes Center will be cosponsoring four debates, Sept. 23, for at-large Atlantic County commissioner, Atlantic County District 2 commissioner and Atlantic County District 5 commissioner; Oct. 6 for the Legislative District 2 state Senate race followed by the Assembly race candidates; Oct. 19 for Atlantic City mayor; and Oct. 20, for Atlantic County clerk.