OCEAN CITY — Peter Lomax of Lomax Consulting answered questions from the audience during the Oct. 30 forum on the state’s proposed flood elevation standards at the Ocean City Tabernacle Oct. 30.
Here is a condensed look at some of the questions and answers. (Paraphrased for brevity.)
Q: There were no climate restrictions 75 years ago and as someone who grew up on the bay in Avalon, I have little elevation change in the water. Why are we saying the next 75 years are going to be so radically different?
A: There is measurable sea level rise. We’ve seen it occurring over the last two decades. Cape May County also is sinking. Avalon marsh is losing sediment in the back bays. There is a compounding effect which is why they’re predicting it will accelerate. That’s why we don’t see it looking backward.
Q: How will the proposed regulations affect flood elevation certificates?
A: Flood elevation certificates will continue to be just as they are, but if a property owner is required to get a permit through the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), you would have to meet the new standard. A new flood elevation certificate won’t stop you from having to meet the standard.
Q: How will this affect insurance rates?
A: I don’t think the insurance industry has said how it will calculate new premiums. No one is sure what information affects premium costs. We just don’t know. It is too soon to tell if financing institutions will require new insurance based on the NJDEP proposal.
Q: The new standards apply to existing structures that have repairs or renovations that exceed 50 percent of the market value of the structure. Just maintaining an older home could put you in that requirement to raise it. Who will determine the market value, which changes on a daily basis?
A: I think the municipality may determine that. The NJDEP is not going to do that. You would need a current appraisal, not the assessed value. It is specifically the market value of the home (not the land).
Q: A realtor asked at what point information about the flood zones has to be disclosed to future buyers and sellers?
A: I believe New Jersey is a buyer-beware state. There will be notices attached to deeds.
Q: Did the NJDEP do any impact studies on the real estate industry or the tourism industry?
A: There were no economic studies on affected industries. That is one of the glaring holes in this process.
Q: The NJDEP permitting process is arduous and the NJDEP is understaffed. What’s going to happen with the tens of thousands of applications for permits they would have to process under the new rules? And is there any consideration of the cost of government work to handle this?
A: That is a valid concern.The NJDEP said it would evaluate staffing resources and allocate where needed.
As someone who puts in DEP applications every day, it is already a lengthy, arduous process. Once an application goes in, it has to go through an analysis. That itself is tedious. I’m seeing flood applications go to the 90th day, then having to ask for a 30-day extention. There are applications that have had to be withdrawn and resubmitted because they couldn’t be done in time.
Q: There are a lot of small lots in Ocean City. Does the more than thousand pages of regulations take into consideration bulk requirements, low-lying areas on lots and architecture?
A: In short, they do not. That’s one more disconnect in the proposed rules. He noted what it would take to have a switchback staircase reach the doorway of an elevated home then magnified that with an ADA-compliant ramp that has a much slower rise.
As an aside he noted there isn’t a consideration for the $300 million fishing industry and how it could affect offloading catches at higher docks.
Q: If this is an executive order, and Murphy is out of office after next November, couldn’t the next governor just reverse it?
A: (Assemblyman Antwan McClellan interjected here). You have to vote the right person in. Elections have consequences. Candidates would have to be told they won’t get support if they’re supporting these regulations.
Q: What about meeting the 50 percent threshold on renovations of condos?
A: Each individual condo may not hit the 50 percent threshold, but there is a look-back process to see if the building hits it if more than one condo renovates.
Q: I’m meeting with architects planning to demolish a home and build a new one next fall. Would I be affected if this becomes law next August?
A: You’re asking me for the over/under? (That drew laughs from the audience.) I haven’t seen anything definitive that the state is backing off. To this point, all indications are they are going to move forward on this.
Q: How will flood insurance be mandated and enforced if I don’t have it or don’t want it?
A: If you are in a flood zone and the structure is financed, the lending institution requires the insurance.
Q: (From state Sen. Michael Testa): Is the entire proposal based on a debunked study from Rutgers?
A: Our term for the study is “low confidence.” This is a study by Rutgers in 2016 and revised in 2019, but not corroborated by any other peer-reviewed studies. They’re using a single source on which to base the plan.
Q: (From Testa): We’re told the NJDEP is making these plans based on doomsday predictions. Would you agree?
A: I can’t tell you that. Regardless of what happens in 2100, we have to make plans for the next 20 to 25 years that can be corroborated and plan for that. Then worry and plan for the following 25 years.
Q: (From Testa): The NJDEP sees people as the invasive species. It shows they’re making drastic changes by executive fiat without including me, Antwan and (Assemblyman) Erik Simonsen and other legislators. Were there other stakeholders included?
A: There was biased stakeholder input. There was no seat at the table for the fishing industry or tourism industry. For municipal input, there was one meeting in 2021, likely virtual. Largely input has been on the supporting side.
Q: Will homeowners have to apply to the NJDEP?
A: Yes, if they hit the 50 percent metric. I expect people will design a home before they realize they have to seek a land use permit from the NJDEP.
Q: This is an agenda about big government control. Will the governor raise the wind turbines an extra 5 or 10 feet in the ocean? (The audience laughed.)
A: (McClellan responded): There is a consideration in the pages of rules to help the wind turbines.
– By DAVID NAHAN/Sentinel staff