By JACK FICHTER/Sentinel staff
TRENTON — A study conducted by the state Department of Environmental Protection found that New Jersey is warming and its seas are rising more quickly than the rest of the Northeast region and the world.
According to a report of its findings, New Jersey has seen the evidence of climate change in its increasingly mild winters, more intense rainfalls, flooding along inland streams and rivers, and more tidal flooding along the coast.
“DEP’s new climate change report shows that New Jersey is even more vulnerable to climate change than they thought. If (Hurricane) Sandy was a wake-up call, this is a bullhorn in your ear saying we need to do more about climate change and act faster,” said Jeff Tittel, director of the New Jersey chapter of the Sierra Club. “Despite these unnerving findings, the administration shows no sense of urgency to strengthen adaptation and mitigation. They are releasing studies when they should be updating our maps and our rules and regulations to deal with the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise.”
The report states water supplies will be stressed from the resultant longer growing season and extreme temperatures expected, rising sea levels may lead to increased saltwater intrusion in aquifers and freshwater intakes and aquifer recharge areas may be threatened if sea-level rise pushes the salt front further upriver.
“As New Jerseyans know too well, the impacts of climate change threaten our property, public health, safety, and can wreak long-lasting damage to our economy,” Gov. Phil Murphy said. “Almost eight years later, some residents of our state are still struggling to recover from Superstorm Sandy (October 2012), and there are businesses and beloved landmarks that have never recovered. Just as we have seen with respect to the COVID-19 crisis, our commitment to environmental health will, too, create economic health. We know that now is the time for climate action, and DEP’s Scientific Report on Climate Change will shape our planning and response to this coming crisis.”
Blueberries, cranberries may be unsustainable
New Jersey may become unsuitable for specialty crops such as blueberries and cranberries in the future as higher temperatures reduce necessary winter chills. For wetlands, increased flooding and salinity are projected to lead to a loss of 92 percent of brackish marshes, 32 percent of tidal swamps and 6 percent of tidal fresh marshes in the Delaware Estuary by 2100.
By the middle of the 21st century, about 70 percent of summers in the Northeast are anticipated to be hotter than the warmest summer to date.
Future high-tide flooding days in Atlantic City under a moderate emissions scenario were modeled with alarming results. By 2100, it is extremely likely that Atlantic City will experience high-tide flooding at least 95 days a year, and likely that Atlantic City will experience high-tide flooding 355 days per year.
DEP Commissioner Catherine R. McCabe said as the climate continues to change, it is vital that New Jerseyans understand what effects are likely to occur and when.
“Together, we can plan for and adapt to those changes, helping one another to keep our communities safe and our economy strong,” she said.
As New Jersey’s Scientific Report on Climate Change explains, data indicates that as atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases increase, New Jersey will experience significant direct and secondary changes in its environment. These include increases in temperature, variability in precipitation, frequency and intensity of storms, sea-level rise, ocean acidification and the associated effects to ecological systems, natural resources, built environments, human health and the economy.
Historically unprecedented warming is projected for the 21st century, resulting in longer and more frequent heat waves that affect larger geographic areas. Annual precipitation is expected to increase from 7 percent to 11 percent by 2050 and occur in more intense rain events that could result in an increase in localized flooding.
By 2050, there is a 50 percent chance that sea-level rise will meet or exceed 1.4 feet and a 17 percent chance it will meet or exceed 2.1 feet, resulting in increased coastal flooding during sunny days and amid storms, affecting infrastructure, residents and businesses. Sea level will further increase by 2100 by as much as 6 or more feet.
According to the report, periods between rain events may be longer, causing drought conditions more frequently, increasing potential for reduced water supply availability, reductions in agricultural capacity that lead to shortages in food production and increased prices, and economic loss from impacts to livestock, and reductions in hydroelectric power production.
Unabated CO2 emissions would reduce pH, creating a more acidic ocean that could harm important marine and estuarine life and New Jersey’s thriving fishing industry, states the report.
Increases in temperature expected as a result of climate change could intensify air pollution as well as respiratory and cardiovascular health concerns. New Jersey’s agricultural yields could suffer as water supplies are stressed from an expanded growing season, while some crops may not thrive in warmer temperatures, according to the report.
The frequency and intensity of harmful algal blooms may increase, disrupting swimming and fishing in New Jersey’s lakes, and posing risks to drinking water reservoirs.
The report is one component of the state’s comprehensive strategy to both reduce emissions and proactively plan and prepare for unavoidable climate impacts. In October 2019, Murphy signed an executive order appointing the state’s first chief resilience officer, establishing the Interagency Council on Climate Resilience and ordering the development of statewide climate resilience strategy to protect and promote public health and safety, as well as the physical, economic and social vitality of New Jersey’s diverse communities.
Murphy followed up with Executive Order No. 100 in January, ordering the DEP to undertake the New Jersey Protecting Against Climate Threats (NJ PACT) initiative, which will modernize the state’s environmental regulations to implement reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and build resilience measures into the state’s environmental land use rules.
The state recently announced plans to develop a more than 200-acre seaport that will facilitate offshore wind projects in New Jersey and throughout the Mid-Atlantic Region. Murphy unveiled New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan, a comprehensive long-term strategy for transitioning the state to 100 percent clean energy by 2050.
New Jersey rejoined the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a 10-state group committed to cutting carbon emissions and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The state generated more than $40 million in proceeds from the first two RGGI auctions since rejoining in 2019.
New Jersey has committed to expanding electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and promoting electric vehicles through one of the best EV incentive structures in the country.
For a copy of the Scientific Report on Climate Change, and more information on climate change and resilience, visit nj.gov/dep/climatechange.
A report released by the First Street Foundation (FSF) last week found that New Jersey is third in the nation for most properties that are at risk of flooding. The FSF’s First Annual National Flood Risk Assessment classifies 14.6 million properties in the U.S. as having substantial risk based on past and present flood risk, nearly 6 million more than the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
“This very disturbing report shows how New Jersey is not prepared for sea-level rise or climate impacts. It is downright scary that we’re third in the nation, and things are getting worse. This new report raises another alarm bell when it comes to flooding in New Jersey, but the state is doing nothing about it,” Tittel said. “The administration shows no sense of urgency to strengthen adaptation and mitigation. We are the only state in the region without a Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Plan, we are using outdated maps for coastal planning, and they are still using (former Gov. Chris) Christie’s weakened rules that cause more flooding.”
Places in New Jersey with the highest number of at-risk properties include Ocean City with 17,255 properties, or 81 percent; Toms River with 11,675 properties, or 26 percent; and Sea Isle City with 11,495 properties, or 86 percent.
Places in New Jersey with the highest proportion of at-risk properties include Wildwood with 98 percent of properties, or 4,371; Dover Beaches South with 95 percent of properties, or 3,456; and Margate City with 93 percent, or 6,188.
“Unfortunately, New Jersey is all wet when it comes to flooding and areas that are flood-prone. We haven’t updated our mapping or our programs, so some of the worst-hit areas are places like Ocean City where they are still growing and building. This puts people in harm’s way while creating future house boats,” Tittel said.
The report found that New Jersey currently has 385,400 properties that are at substantial risk, or 11.2 percent. The U.S. national average in 2020 is 10.3 percent. The report projects that in 2050, New Jersey will have 459,000 properties at substantial risk, or 13.3 percent of all properties in the state. The projected national average is 11.4 percent.
The report projects New Jersey, Florida, Louisiana, Delaware and South Carolina to have the highest proportional increase of properties with significant risk by 2050. The projections show that New Jersey will have 73,600 more properties at substantial risk in 2050 than are included in current FEMA flood risk assessment maps.