Lomax: They’re based on predicted sea level rise in 2100
Editor’s note: See related stories, Q&A with Peter Lomax and local officials urging people to comment before time is up Nov. 7.
OCEAN CITY — The year is 2100, the anticipated sea level rise by then could be 5.1 feet, but the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection wants property owners to plan for that in 2025.
Local, county and state legislators, who say they aren’t denying climate change and rising sea levels, want the NJDEP to hit the brakes and make changes incrementally instead of all at once for fear of what will happen 75 years from now based on one scientific projection.
They argue for an incremental approach because of what the changes would mean for barrier island communities and places such as Cape May County, which is low-lying and heavily affected by the proposal.
County officials say they are leading the charge and “the rest of the state is waking up.”
Gov. Phil Murphy’s Executive Order 100 would require homeowners in flood zones — zones to be enacted in 2025 based on expectations in 2100 — to raise their homes by 5 feet if they plan repairs or renovations that will equal or exceed 50 percent of their home’s market value.
That is market value of the building itself and also applies to businesses — not the assessed value or the value of the entire property, according to Peter Lomax of Lomax Consulting.
He was hired by the Cape May County Board of Commissioners to review the more than 1,000 pages of new rules and regulations in the executive order and then to help the county and its municipalities fight their implementation less than a year from now.
Speaking Oct. 30 at the Ocean City Tabernacle during a seminar sponsored by Families of Ocean City United in Success (FOCUS), Lomax painted a picture of an onerous burden that could be placed on New Jersey property owners.
Like other local officials who spoke to the crowd of about 250 at the Tabernacle and another 750 who watched on the county’s livestream, he urged everyone to weigh in immediately with their concerns because the deadline for public comment on the plan ends Nov. 7.
The governor’s executive order, which bypassed the Legislature and is in the review process by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), involves regulations through New Jersey Resilient Environments and Landscapes (NJREAL) and NJPACT — Protecting Against Climate Threats. The NJDEP asserts it is modernizing land use rules to respond to climate change risks as sea level rises.
Lomax said a panel of scientists from Rutgers University prepared projections in 2016 (updated in 2019) used by the NJDEP and set the year 2100 as the planning horizon for the new regulations. The scientists estimated a 17 percent probability that the sea level rise could be as high as 5.1 feet by then.
A chart Lomax presented shows a low-end sea level rise of 1.3 feet (95 percent chance), 2.0 feet (83 percent chance), 3.3 feet (50 percent chance) and as high as 6.9 feet (less than a 5 percent chance.)
The NJDEP decided that any buildings to be constructed now could still be in service at the turn of the next century, hence the new rules and regulations on new construction — and on repairs and renovations.
“They’re looking at 75 years in the future to be regulated in 2025,” Lomax said. “That should get your attention.”
In his talk, he focused on two things: the inundation risk zone (IRZ) and climate adjusted flood elevation.
The inundation risk zone is land permanently covered by water because of expected sea level rise, forcing structures to be raised five feet. The adjusted flood elevation anticipates another five feet in the case of a 100-year flood. Those two factors have a “compounding effect,” Lomax said.
In Cape May County, which is low-lying, a shoreline based on 5.1 feet of sea level rise would travel far inland from where it is now, as would potential flood zones, as the NJDEP sees it.
He noted that is also the case for communities not just along the shore and Delaware Bay, but for a number of cities in New Jersey.
These new rules would have a disproportionate effect in Cape May County: it would put 43 percent of the county in the inundation risk zone. (More than 80 percent of Ocean City.) He compared that to Atlantic County, where the IRZ would cover 17 percent.
“This is not just a barrier island impact,” he said.
How this affects home and business owners is that since so many more properties would be classified in those new flood zones, should they want to repair or improve their properties (at the 50 percent threshold or above), they would have to get a permit from the NJDEP and have a deed notice put in their title to indicate the property is in an inundation zone with a certain level of water to be expected there in the future.
When Lomax showed maps of Cape May County with what the NJDEP is showing as potential flood zones, they reach far past the Garden State Parkway, showing it’s not just the barrier islands on the coast affected or the communities along Delaware Bay.
He said the rules are intended to discourage further development on barrier islands and lower-lying areas.
Adding in the predicted 100-year flood, it puts 60 percent of Cape May County into a flood zone and 30 percent of Atlantic County. Using climate adjusted flood elevations, he pointed out properties in cities such as Hoboken and Salem City would be affected at 89 and 78 percent, respectively.
“Cape May County has been the leading voice educating the public about these rules,” Lomax said. “The rest of the state is waking up” and other counties are passing resolutions of concern.
“It’s a recognition that we have the need for comprehensive and incremental strategies to adjust and adapt to sea level rise,” Lomax said. “No one is denying climate change or the need to adapt or have design standards.”
He noted that the state ignores the fact many Cape May County municipalities have already been doing this by adopting more conservative building standards over the years — “long before the state told us when and how to do it. These regulations tell us to do it overnight for predicted conditions 75 years into the future.”
This executive order “is drastic,” he said. It was done without stakeholder engagement, including the municipalities and counties affected; without looking at the comprehensive economic impact it would have on ratables, the tourism and fishing industries; and without consulting the Legislature, which represents the people of New Jersey.
“It makes sense that we pause the process and adjust to a more reasonable planning process,” Lomax concluded.
That would be a 10-year or 20-year planning horizon to adjust to real-world situations and adapt over time. Doing so would “give you and the industries we rely on the ability to stay here and thrive into the future.”
At the end of the public comment period, the NJDEP will address and respond to the comments and critiques and can either modify the proposal as is or modify it. It only has until August 2025 to file a notice of adoption.
– STORY and PHOTO by DAVID NAHAN/Sentinel staff