Poll shows Republicans ahead in 1st District
GALLOWAY – Incumbent Republican Mike Testa leads Democratic challenger Yolanda Garcia Balicki by 13 percentage points in the Legislative District 1 State Senate race, according to a Stockton University Poll released last week.
Testa’s Republican running mates also lead in the 1st District Assembly races, but they are far less known than the senator and are ahead by 4 to 6 percentage points in the four-candidate field, according to the poll of 407 likely voters conducted for the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy. The voters will elect two Assembly members in each district. The 1st District includes all of Cape May County, most of Cumberland County and a small part of Atlantic County.
In the Senate contest, Testa leads 49 percent to 36 percent for Garcia Balicki, with 9 percent unsure. Among the Assembly candidates, Republican Erik Simonsen leads with 25 percent, followed by Republican Antwan McClellan with 23 percent. Democrats John Capizola and Julia Hankerson each garnered 19 percent support, with 10 percent unsure. Testa, a Vineland resident, leads Garcia Balicki of Millville in both Cape May and Cumberland counties.
One problem for the Democrats is that few voters know who they are. All three were unfamiliar to 67 percent to 70 percent of poll respondents. The Republicans didn’t fare much better, as 57 percent to 60 percent are unfamiliar with the GOP Assembly candidates.
“These are fairly typical results for Assembly candidates who have not been in office for many years,” said John Froonjian, Hughes Center executive director.
The Republicans have the best-known candidate at the top of their ticket. Only 34 percent said they didn’t know Testa, and he was viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 19 percent.
In the 1st District, Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli edged out incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, 46 percent to 44 percent – a statistical tie – with 5 percent not sure. Murphy’s ratings were 44 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable. Murphy’s job rating was a statistical wash, with 49 percent approving strongly or somewhat and 48 percent disapproving. Ciattarelli was viewed in a positive light by 42 percent compared to 29 percent unfavorable, with 22 percent unfamiliar with him.
The COVID-19 pandemic was identified as the election’s top issue, said Hughes Center Research Associate Alyssa Maurice. But the nationwide polarization on the subject was evident: 14 percent were concerned with public health and safety, and 13 percent were concerned with mask and vaccine mandates. Taxes (12 percent), property taxes (10 percent) and the economy (8 percent) followed as major issues. On mask mandates in schools, 57 percent supported them while 35 percent opposed them. The split was closer on vaccine mandates, with 51 percent in support and 42 percent opposed.
A 52 percent majority said they were not satisfied with the efforts of state officials to attract or create jobs in South Jersey. However, 51 percent were optimistic about the future of the South Jersey economy, with 40 percent being pessimistic.
Asked who would better handle the issue of taxes, Republicans at 54 percent bested the Democrats at 34 percent.
On handling the pandemic, 44 percent named the Democrats to 38 percent for Republicans.